04
2019
-
12
Explore the real reasons for building materials prices
Author:
November was originally the turning point when the demand of the construction industry changed from the peak season
November was originally the turning point when the demand of the construction industry changed from the peak season to the off season, but in November, the products of building materials, cement, glass and steel bars all went crazy, especially the price increase of cement could not be bought. Zibo, the third-tier city where Xiaobian is located, is also in short supply of cement. Due to the shortage of concrete, the construction site market is not full of food. According to a friend who is engaged in budget work in a state-owned construction enterprise, "the supply of concrete has been intermittent for a month and a half".
In fact, it is not only cement that has risen in price. The price of glass in non-metallic building materials has also risen for more than half a year. The price of metal building materials also caught up in November. The price indexes of cement, glass and building materials monitored by Zhuochuang Information have fluctuated by 13%,14.4 and 11.31 respectively in the past six months (June 1 to November 30).
In terms of the causes of price increases, the direct causes are nothing more than supply and demand problems. So is supply or demand dominant among the factors that affect price volatility?
1, building materials supply can not constitute the main reason for price increases
Cement, glass, and steel are all "polluting industries" in traditional cognition, and these three types of enterprises have always been the top priority in previous environmental inspections. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei air pollution prevention and control action plan, these three types of enterprises have never been absent. Is the price increase of cement, glass and steel due to the shortage of supply?
When we look at steel, the supply of steel remains relatively high, and of the three products, steel has the strongest financial attributes and is more likely to be influenced by economic and expectation-level factors. Steel production has remained at a high level over the past year, with a high probability of record crude steel production in 2019, and the production of construction steel products monitored by Zhuochuang Information has been at a relatively high level. It is clear that the rise in construction steel prices is not due to a shortage of supply.
Looking at glass products again, the output of glass products is similar to that of construction steel, and the output has been at a relatively high level. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's float glass produced a total of 776.2 million load boxes from January to October, an increase of 5.2 percent over the same period last year. From a supply point of view, the supply of glass products does not constitute a clear support for prices.
In cement, the production and supply of cement is also at a relatively high level. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October 2019, the country's cumulative cement output was 1.91 billion tons, an increase of 5.8 percent year-on-year. From a production point of view, according to the monitoring data of Zhuochuang Information, the operating rate of cement mills at the end of November was 57.89 per cent, compared with 48.87 per cent in the same period in 2018, which means that cement has been at a relatively high level from a production point of view. Market supply is not declining, but is growing positively.
From the perspective of supply data, the output of building materials products is at a relatively high level, especially cement, whose operating rate is significantly higher than in previous years, that is to say, from the perspective of supply, the market is not in short supply. But why does the cement market reflect a serious shortage of supply?
2, inventory is at a low level.
Among the data reflecting supply indicators, inventory is also one of the important indicators. Inventory has both supply and demand attributes. In the process of price rise, due to the increase of market speculative demand, inventory will show an increasing trend. From the mentality, "hoarding" has become the choice of many traders and even speculators.
The changes in the social inventory of rebar in 2019 are slightly different from those in previous years. Judging from the data of the past ten years, the social inventory of rebar generally shows two peaks in a year, one in March and the other in October, respectively reflecting the demand of the two traditional peak consumption seasons of "gold, three, silver, four" and "gold, nine, silver and ten". Traders prepare goods in advance for the arrival of peak season demand. In the second half of 2019, the social inventory of steel first rose and then fell. The peak level appeared in August. After entering October, the social inventory level did not increase but fell, and showed a rapid downward trend different from previous years. The inventory level at the end of November was close to the lowest level in 10 years.
The inventory change of glass is similar to that of steel, and the inventory level fluctuates regularly due to the change of market demand during the year. Float glass inventory levels declined significantly from '17, and inventories showed an upward trend from '17 to '19, but total inventories were small. Inventory fell to 38.139 million weight boxes by the end of October, below the level of 11.7796 million weight boxes for the same period in 18 years. (The decline in November was even more pronounced, as the data had not yet been completed and therefore could not be shown. Judging from the inventory levels of the key provinces [Ji, Lu, Su, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Min, E, Xiang, Sichuan, Jin, Shan and Liao], which were counted by Zhuochuang Information, the inventory levels of the key provinces at the end of this month were 23.11 million weight boxes, and 2.49 million weight boxes were cut from the previous month.)
In terms of cement inventory, after 15 years, the inventory level of the cement industry also showed a downward trend, the regularity of inventory fluctuations is not strong, 19 years of cement inventory as a whole is at a low level, the total amount of cement inventory at the end of November is about 61.01 million tons, 8.95 million tons lower than the same period last year.
From the perspective of inventory, the inventory level of building materials products is at a relatively low level. In the case of changes in demand, there is a state of short supply. In November, the domestic heating season began to limit production, which has a greater impact on the expected supply of cement and glass. However, due to the relatively high level of current production profits, the kinetic energy of production enterprises to take the initiative to reduce the burden is obviously insufficient, the rapid decline in inventory entry has exacerbated the expectation of insufficient supply in the market.
3, the change of demand is the main reason for the price rise.
In 2019, real estate changed from "land purchase-driven" to "construction-driven", and the demand for glass increased at this stage, resulting in a sharp increase in prices. In addition, real estate investment has shown a certain degree of "resilience" this year ". According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8548.82 million square meters, an increase of 9.0 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points faster than that from January to September. The area of new housing starts was 1856.34 million square meters, an increase of 10.0, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.4 percentage points. In addition, this year's warm winter weather has prompted active real estate and infrastructure construction, and the construction industry's prosperity remains high. In addition, near the end of the year, there is a rush to the phenomenon, so the demand side of the increase led to cement, rebar and other major building materials prices.
The super resilience of real estate performance is the main reason for the good performance of building materials demand this winter, and the acceleration of the growth rate of new construction area also represents the continuation of the resilience of real estate demand. The real estate steel model established by Zhuochuang Information based on the newly started real estate area shows that the demand for real estate steel has risen again after July, and it can still maintain a high growth level in the next three months. The December data is expected to exceed the highest 27 million in April. Ton level.
Steel bar and cement are used together in the real estate market. Therefore, from the demand for real estate steel, it can be inferred that the demand for cement is also strong. The toughness of real estate demand is the main reason why the price performance of building materials products has exceeded market expectations in the past six months. Demand for glass lags behind cement and rebar by 10-24 months, mainly for real estate construction and installation, and the rise in real estate demand in '18 has formed a strong support for glass demand in '19.
Summary: Since the second half of 2019, glass, cement, rebar has risen is the real estate represented by the building materials demand toughness brought about, and the level of inventory de-stocking and determines the three product phase supply and demand contradictions. Overall, glass price trends represent lagging demand from increased real estate investment over the past two years, cement price increases represent short-term demand resilience, and construction steel price increases are a comprehensive reflection of demand resilience and poor macro expectations.
Inventory, which translates into speculative demand when prices rise and implicit supply when prices fall, increases price volatility, which we call the "X" factor in the factors that directly affect price volatility. The resilience of real estate demand is the main reason for the increasing importance of the current "X" factor. No matter how the real estate market lands in 2020, the "X" factor affecting the current building materials market will still exist.
Core products of this session: 1. Aluminum-plastic panels, aluminum single panels 2. A2, B1 fireproof metal composite panels 3. Three-dimensional aviation panels, honeycomb panels
2025-05-20
Contact Us
Business Manager: 86-18290495485
Address: Longshui Industrial Park, Dazu District, Chongqing
